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정당 지지율, 국민의힘 38.2%, 민주당 37.8%와 오차범위 내 경합

정성태 칼럼니스트 | 기사입력 2025/01/01 [09:27]

▲ 우원식 국회의장(가운데), 권영세 국민의힘 비상대책위원장(왼쪽), 이재명 더불어민주당 대표가 31일 국회의장실에서 만나 기념사진을 촬영하고 있다. 2024.12.31.     ©브레이크뉴스

 

더불어민주당의 입법 횡포가 지속되는 가운데 여론조사기관 조원씨앤아이가 한양경제 의뢰로 12월 28~29일 사이 실시한 정당별 지지율 조사에서 국민의힘이 38.2%로, 민주당 37.8%과 오차범위 내로 들어왔다. 이어 조국혁신당 3.2%, 개혁신당 3.0%, 기타 정당 2.9%, 지지 정당 없음 13.8%, 모르겠음 1.1%로 집계됐다.

 

이를 지역별로 보면 서울(국힘 32.4% vs 민주 39.8%), 인천/경기(국힘 35.8% vs 민주 39.9%), 대전/세종/충청(국힘 52.0% vs 민주 27.5%), 광주/전남/전북(국힘 28.8% vs 민주 49.8%), 대구/경북(국힘 42.6% vs 민주 37.9%), 부산/울산/경남(국힘 42.9% vs 민주 31.3%), 강원/제주(국힘 41.7% vs 민주33.7%)를 보였다. 

 

연령대별로는 18~28세(국힘 32.9% vs 민주 36.0%), 30대 (국힘 30.2% vs 민주 41.0%), 40대(국힘 27.9% vs 민주 48.3%), 50대(국힘 36.5% vs 민주 39.9%), 60대(국힘 44.8% vs 민주 34.7%), 70세 이상(국힘 58.1% vs 민주 24.8%)였다.

 

이념성향별로는 진보(국힘 6.5% vs 민주 83.6%), 중도(국힘 25.7% vs 민주 34.9%), 보수(국힘 78.9% vs 민주 8.1%), 잘 모름(국힘 37% vs 민주 30.7%)를 기록했다. 

 

성별로는 남성(국힘 40.7% vs 민주 33.4%), 여성(국힘 35.7% vs 민주 42.0%)로 남성층에서는 국민의힘 우세인 반면 여성층에서는 민주당 우세를 보였다.

 

흥미로운 점은, '내일이 대통령선거 투표일이라면 어느 당 후보에게 투표'할 것인지를 묻는 질문에서는 더불어민주당 48.0%, 국민의힘 38.2%, 그 외 정당 6.2%, 없다 4.8%, 잘 모르겠다 2.9% 순이었다.  

 

▲ 필자/정성태 칼럼니스트.     ©브레이크뉴스

이번 조사는 전국 만18세 이상 남녀 유권층 1003명을 대상으로 무선 RDD 이용 ARS로 진행됐다. 응답률 3.5%에 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에 ±3.1%p다. 

 

자세한 조사 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다.

 

* 필자 : 정성태(시인/칼럼니스트).

 

*아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.>

 

Political party approval ratings: People Power Party 38.2%, Democratic Party 37.8%, within margin of error

 

In a survey of party approval ratings conducted by polling agency Chowon C&I on behalf of Hanyang Economic Daily between December 28 and 29 amid the continued legislative tyranny of the Democratic Party of Korea, the People Power Party was recorded at 38.2%, within the margin of error of the Democratic Party at 37.8%. It was followed by the Fatherland Innovation Party at 3.2%, the New Reform Party at 3.0%, other parties at 2.9%, no party support at 13.8%, and unsure at 1.1%. By region, it was Seoul (People's Power 32.4% vs. Democratic 39.8%), Incheon/Gyeonggi (People's Power 35.8% vs. Democratic 39.9%), Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong (People's Power 52.0% vs. Democratic 27.5%), Gwangju/Jeonnam/Jeonbuk (People's Power 28.8% vs. Democratic 49.8%), Daegu/Gyeongbuk (People's Power 42.6% vs. Democratic 37.9%), Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (People's Power 42.9% vs. Democratic 31.3%), and Gangwon/Jeju (People's Power 41.7% vs. Democratic 33.7%). By age group, it was 18-28 years old (People's Power Party 32.9% vs. Democratic Party 36.0%), 30s (People's Power Party 30.2% vs. Democratic Party 41.0%), 40s (People's Power Party 27.9% vs. Democratic Party 48.3%), 50s (People's Power Party 36.5% vs. Democratic Party 39.9%), 60s (People's Power Party 44.8% vs. Democratic Party 34.7%), and 70 years old or older (People's Power Party 58.1% vs. Democratic Party 24.8%).

 

By ideological tendency, it was progressive (People's Power Party 6.5% vs. Democratic Party 83.6%), moderate (People's Power Party 25.7% vs. Democratic Party 34.9%), conservative (People's Power Party 78.9% vs. Democratic Party 8.1%), and unsure (People's Power Party 37% vs. Democratic Party 30.7%).

 

By gender, the People's Power Party was dominant among men (People's Power Party 40.7% vs. Democratic Party 33.4%) and women (People's Power Party 35.7% vs. Democratic Party 42.0%), while the People's Power Party was dominant among men and women.

 

Interestingly, when asked 'Which party's candidate would you vote for if tomorrow were the presidential election day', the results were 48.0% for the Democratic Party, 38.2% for the People's Power Party, 6.2% for other parties, 4.8% for none, and 2.9% for unsure.

 

This survey was conducted using wireless RDD ARS with 1,003 male and female voters aged 18 or older nationwide. The response rate was 3.5%, and the sampling error was ±3.1%p at a 95% confidence level.

 

For more detailed survey information, please refer to the website of the Central Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.

 

* Author: Jeong Seong-tae (poet/columnist).

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