‘여론조사꽃’이 2월 19일부터 20일까지 이틀간 실시한 전화면접조사에서 정당지지도에서 ‘더불어민주당’의 지지율은 46.8%, ‘국민의힘’은 35.3%를 기록했다.
 ▲ 차기 대통령 선거에서 가장 적합한 대권 주자는 ‘이재명 더불어민주당 대표’가 43.3%의 지지를 얻으며 1위, 2위는 12.0%를 기록한 ‘김문수 전 노동부 장관’으로, 두 후보간 격차는 31.3%p였다. © 김충열 정치전문기자 |
차기 대통령 선거에서 가장 적합한 대권 주자는 ‘이재명 더불어민주당 대표’가 43.3%의 지지를 얻으며 1위, 2위는 12.0%를 기록한 ‘김문수 전 노동부 장관’으로, 두 후보간 격차는 31.3%p였다. 3위는 ‘오세훈 서울시장’(6.7%), 4위는 ‘홍준표 대구시장’(6.3%), 5위는 ‘한동훈 국민의힘 전 대표’(3.3%)로 조사됐다. 이어 ‘김동연 경기도지사’는 2.2%, ‘안철수 국민의힘 의원’은 1.9%, ‘이준석 개혁신당 의원’과 ‘우원식 국회의장’은 각 0.7%로 조사됐다.
정당지지도에서 권역별로 살펴보면, ‘더불어민주당’은 호남권에서 78.9%의 압도적인 지지를 얻었으며, 서울(47.0%), 경인권 (50.0%), 충청권(44.2%)에서도 ‘국민의힘’을 앞섰다. 반면, ‘국민의힘’은 대구·경북에서 58.0%, 부·울·경에서 43.9%의 지지율을 얻으며 강세를 보였다.
연령대별로 보면 30대 이상 50대 이하는 ‘더불어민주당’이, 60대 이상은 ‘국민의힘’이 앞서거나 우세했다. 18~29세는 양 당이 접전을 벌였다. 연령대 by 성별로 살펴보면, 30대 이하 연령층과 60대 남성과 여성 간 지지 정당 차이가 두드러졌다. 18~29세와 30대 남성은 ‘국민의힘’이 앞서거나 우세(18~29세 남: ‘더불어민주당’ 20.6%, ‘국민의힘’ 47.5%, 30대 남:‘더불어민주당’ 34.5%, ‘국민의힘’ 44.1% )한 반면, 같은 연령대의 여성은 ‘더불어민주당’이 압도적으로 우세(18~29세 여: ‘더불어민주당’ 45.4%, ‘국민의힘’ 14.1%, 30대 여: ‘더불어민주당’ 53.5%, ‘국민의힘’ 21.4%)했다. 반면 60대는 남성은 ‘더불어민주당’이 앞섰고, 여성은 ‘국민의힘’이 우세했다(60대 남: ‘더불어민주당’ 49.6%, ‘국민의힘’ 39.9%, 60대 여: ‘더불어민주당’ 34.6%, ‘국민의힘’ 57.7%)를 점했다.
이념 성향별로는, 진보층과 중도층에서 ‘더불어민주당’이 우세했으며, 보수층에서는 ‘국민의힘’이 강세를 보였다. 중도층은 ‘더불어민주당’이 52.6%, ‘국민의힘’이 23.7%로, 양당 간 격차는 28.9%p에 달했다. ‘조국혁신당’은 중도층에서 7.7%의 지지율을 기록했다.
국민 10명 중 6명 이상, ‘파면 선고로 조기 대선이 치러질 것’
차기 대통령 선거가 언제 치러질 것이라는 질문에 전화면접조사결과 응답자의 32.2%가 ‘탄핵이 기각되어 2년 후 치러질 것’이라고 답한 반면 63.4%는 ‘파면이 선고되어 조기 대선이 치러질 것’이라고 응답했다. 이에 따라 응답자 10명 중 6명 이상이 조기 대선을 예상하는 것으로 나타났으며 양측 간 격차는 31.2%p였다.
권역별로 대구·경북을 제외한 모든 지역에서 ‘파면이 선고되어 조기 대선이 치러질 것’이라는 응답이 우세했다. 특히 호남권에서는 88.2%가 ‘조기 대선’에 공감하며 가장 높은 응답률을 기록했다. 또한, 수도권과 충청권에서도 ‘조기 대선’을 예상하는 응답이 높게 나타났다. 반면, 대구·경북에서는 ‘탄핵 기각으로 2년 후 대선’(48.7%)이 ‘조기 대선’(43.3%)를 소폭 앞서며 다른 권역과 차이를 보였다.
연령대별로 보면 50대 이하에서는 ‘정권 교체’ 의견이 우세했고, 60대에서도 ‘정권 교체’ 응답이 앞섰다. 특히 40·50대는 각각 83.1%, 78.8%의 높은 응답으로 ‘조기 대선’을 예상했다. 반면 70세 이상에서는 ‘탄핵 기각으로 2년 후 대선’이라는 응답이 우세했다. 성별에 관계없이 남성과 여성 모두 ‘조기 대선’ 의견이 우세했으나 연령대별 차이가 있었다. 연령대별 성별로 보면 ‘조기 대선’을 예상한 50대 이하 남녀와 달리 18~29세 남성의 경우 ‘탄핵 기각으로 2년 후 대선’이라는 의견이 ‘조기 대선’보다 소폭 앞섰고, 같은 연령대 여성과도 응답에 차이가 있었다.
정당 지지층 별로는 더불어민주당 지지층 96.3%가 ‘조기 대선’을 예상한 반면, 국민의힘 지지층의 79.7%는 ‘2년 후 대선’을 지지하며 정당 지지층 간 차이가 극명하게 드러났다. 또한, 무당층에서도 10명 중 6명은 ‘조기 대선’을 예상했다.
이념성향별로 보면 진보층(91.1%), 중도층(74.6%)은 ‘조기 대선’ 응답이 압도적으로 많았던 반면, 보수층(67.3%)은 ‘탄핵 기각으로 2년 후 대선’을 더 지지했다.
정권을 연장해야 한다 36.0% vs 정권을 교체해야 한다 62.2%
차기 대통령 선거에 대한 다음 의견 중 전화면접조사결과 응답자의 36.0%가 ‘정권을 연장해야 한다’고 답한 반면 62.2%는 ‘정권을 교체해야 한다’고 응답해, 응답자 10명 중 6명이 정권 교체를 희망하는 것으로 나타났으며, 양측 간 격차는 26.2%p였다.
권역별로 대구·경북을 제외한 모든 지역에서 ‘정권을 교체해야 한다’는 응답이 우세했다. 특히 호남권에서는 89.8%가 ‘정권 교체’에 공감하며 가장 높은 응답률을 기록했다. 또한, 수도권과 충청권에서도 정권 교체 요구가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 대구·경북에서는 ‘정권 연장’(58.8%)이 ‘정권 교체’(40.0%)보다 우세해 다른 권역과 차이를 보였다.
연령대별로 보면 50대 이하에서는 ‘정권 교체’ 의견이 우세했다. 특히 40대(83.2%)와 50대(74.8%)에서 강한 교체 요구가 나타났다. 반면, 60대에서는 양 응답이 팽팽했으며, 70세 이상에서는 ‘정권 연장’ 의견이 우세했다. 성별에 관계없이 남성과 여성 모두 ‘정권 교체’ 의견이 우세했으나 연령대별 차이가 존재했다. 18~29세 남성의 경우 ‘정권 연장’(52.4%) 의견이 다소 높았던 반면, 같은 연령대 여성은 ‘정권 교체’(77.7%)를 더 지지했다.
정당 지지층 별로는 더불어민주당 지지층 97.6%가 ‘정권 교체’를 주장한 반면, 국민의힘 지지층의 90.8%는 ‘정권 연장’을 지지하며 양측 간 입장 차이가 뚜렷하게 나타났다. 또한, 무당층의 67.4%는 ‘정권 교체’를 희망하는 것으로 조사됐다.
이념성향별에 따른 의견 차이도 뚜렷했다. 진보층(94.7%), 중도층(72.7%)은 ‘정권 교체’ 응답이 압도적으로 많았던 반면, 보수층(76.8%)은 ‘정권 연장’을 더 지지했다. 또한, 차기 대권주자 지지층별 분석에서도 차이가 나타났다. ‘김문수’ 지지층의 97.7%가 ‘정권 연장’에 찬성하며 극우 보수층이 결집된 흐름을 보였다. 이어 ‘홍준표’ 지지층 (83.7%)과 ‘오세훈’ 지지층 (81.7%)도 ‘정권 연장’ 응답이 높았다.
차기대권 주자 적합도 ‘이재명’, 43.3%로 압도적 1위. 12.0% 기록한 ‘김문수’와 31.3%p 격차
차기 대통령 선거에서 가장 적합한 대권 주자에 대해 묻는 전화면접조사 결과 ‘이재명 더불어민주당 대표’가 43.3%의 지지를 얻으며 1위를 유지했다. 2위는 12.0%를 기록한 ‘김문수 전 노동부 장관’으로, 두 후보간 격차는 31.3%p였다. 3위는 ‘오세훈 서울시장’(6.7%), 4위는 ‘홍준표 대구시장’(6.3%), 5위는 ‘한동훈 국민의힘 전 대표’(3.3%)로 조사됐다. 이어 ‘김동연 경기도지사’는 2.2%, ‘안철수 국민의힘 의원’은 1.9%, ‘이준석 개혁신당 의원’과 ‘우원식 국회의장’은 각 0.7%로 조사됐다.
권역별로 ‘이재명’이 모든 지역에서 선두를 기록했으며 수도권, 충청권, 호남권, 부·울·경, 강원·제주에서 ‘김문수’를 큰 폭으로 앞섰다. 대구·경북에서도 ‘이재명’이 오차범위 내에서 우위를 보였다.
연령대별로 보면, 18~29세의 경우 ‘적합한 인물 없음’(34.9%)이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 그 뒤를 ‘이재명’(23.6%), ‘홍준표’(11.0%)순이었다. 30대 이상 60대 이하는 ‘이재명’이 압도적으로 ‘김문수’를 앞섰으며 70세 이상에서는 지난 조사에 이어 ‘이재명’(24.5%)과 ‘김문수’(24.3%)가 팽팽하게 맞서는 결과를 보였다.
정당 지지층별로는 더불어민주당 지지층의 82.8%가 ‘이재명’을 선택한 반면, 국민의힘 지지층의 32.7%는 ‘김문수’를 차기 대권주자로 지지했다.
이념 성향별로는 진보층에서는 77.0%가 ‘이재명’에게 압도적 지지를 보인 반면, 보수층(31.2%)에서는 ‘김문수’를 1위로 선택했다. 중도층에서는 ‘이재명’(49.2%)이 ‘오세훈’(6.9%)을 42.3%p, ‘김문수’(5.8%)를 43.4%p 차이로 앞서며 높은 지지를 유지했다.
민주 계열의 대권주자인 ‘이재명’, ‘김동연’, ‘우원식’의 합산 지지율은 46.2%로 국힘 계열의 ‘김문수’, ‘오세훈’, ‘홍준표’, ‘한동훈’, ‘안철수’, ‘이준석’의 합산 지지율(30.9%)보다 15.3%p 높았다.
이번 여론조사는 전화면접조사결과 인터뷰 방식으로 진행됐다. 통신3사(전체 29,997개 / SKT: 15,000, KT: 9,000, LGU+: 5,997)가 제공해 조사기간은 2025년 2월 19일~ 2월 20일 진행 (2일간), 95％ 신뢰수준에 표본오차는 ±3.1％포인트다. 응답률은 13.3% [총 통화시도 7,570명]다. 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다. hpf21@naver.com
* 아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.
*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.
Poll Flower "Democratic Party 46.8% vs. 'People Power Party' 35.3%, 11.5%p gap... Representative Lee Jae-myung 1st with 43.3%"
More than 6 out of 10 citizens believe that an early presidential election will be held due to the impeachment
In a telephone interview survey conducted by 'Public Opinion Poll Flower' for two days from February 19th to 20th, the 'Democratic Party of Korea' recorded 46.8% support, while the 'People Power Party' recorded 35.3%.
The most suitable presidential candidate for the next presidential election is 'Lee Jae-myung, Representative of the Democratic Party of Korea' with 43.3% support, and 'Former Minister of Labor Kim Moon-soo' with 12.0%, with a gap of 31.3%p between the two candidates. 'Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon' (6.7%) came in third, and 'People Power Party' with 4.7%. ‘Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu’ (6.3%), and ‘Former People Power Party Leader Han Dong-hoon’ (3.3%) were surveyed in 5th place. ‘Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon’ followed with 2.2%, ‘People Power Party Representative Ahn Cheol-soo’ with 1.9%, ‘Reform Party Representative Lee Jun-seok’ and ‘National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik’ were surveyed with 0.7% each.
Looking at the party approval rating by region, the ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ received an overwhelming 78.9% support in the Honam region, and also surpassed the ‘People Power Party’ in Seoul (47.0%), the Gyeongin region (50.0%), and the Chungcheong region (44.2%). On the other hand, the ‘People Power Party’ showed strength with 58.0% support in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, and 43.9% support in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongsang.
Looking at the age group, those in their 30s or older and 50s or younger The Democratic Party of Korea was ahead or dominant among those in their 60s and older, while the People Power Party was ahead or dominant among those in their 60s and older. The two parties were locked in a close race among those aged 18 to 29. When looking at it by age group and gender, there was a notable difference in the support for political parties among those in their 30s and younger and between men and women in their 60s. The People Power Party was ahead or dominant among those aged 18 to 29 and men in their 30s (Men aged 18 to 29: The Democratic Party of Korea 20.6%, People Power Party 47.5%; Men in their 30s: The Democratic Party of Korea 34.5%, People Power Party 44.1%), while the Democratic Party of Korea was overwhelmingly dominant among women of the same age group (Women aged 18 to 29: The Democratic Party of Korea 45.4%, People Power Party 14.1%; Women in their 30s: The Democratic Party of Korea 53.5%, ‘People Power Party’ 21.4%). On the other hand, among men in their 60s, the ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ was ahead, while the ‘People Power Party’ was ahead among women (60s men: ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ 49.6%, ‘People Power Party’ 39.9%; 60s women: ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ 34.6%, ‘People Power Party’ 57.7%).
By ideological tendency, the ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ was ahead among the progressive and moderate groups, while the ‘People Power Party’ was strong among the conservative groups. Among the moderates, the ‘Democratic Party of Korea’ had 52.6% support, while the ‘People Power Party’ had 23.7% support, resulting in a gap of 28.9%p between the two parties. The ‘Fatherland Innovation Party’ recorded a 7.7% support rate among the moderates.
More than 6 out of 10 Koreans Think ‘Early Presidential Election Will Be Held Due to Impeachment’
When asked about when the next presidential election will be held, 32.2% of respondents in a telephone interview answered that ‘the impeachment will be dismissed and it will be held in two years’, while 63.4% answered that ‘the impeachment will be dismissed and an early presidential election will be held’. Accordingly, more than 6 out of 10 respondents predicted an early presidential election, and the gap between the two sides was 31.2%p.
By region, the response that ‘the impeachment will be dismissed and an early presidential election will be held’ was dominant in all regions except Daegu and Gyeongbuk. In particular, the Honam region recorded the highest response rate, with 88.2% agreeing with ‘early presidential election’. In addition, the response that ‘early presidential election’ was expected was high in the metropolitan area and Chungcheong region. On the other hand, in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, ‘Presidential election in two years if impeachment dismissed’ (48.7%) slightly surpassed ‘Early presidential election’ (43.3%), showing a difference from other regions.
By age group, ‘regime change’ was dominant among those in their 50s and younger, and ‘regime change’ was also dominant among those in their 60s. In particular, those in their 40s and 50s predicted ‘early presidential election’ with high responses of 83.1% and 78.8%, respectively. On the other hand, those in their 70s and older responded ‘Presidential election in two years if impeachment dismissed’ was dominant. Regardless of gender, both men and women preferred ‘early presidential election’, but there were differences by age group. By age group and gender, unlike men and women in their 50s or younger who expected an ‘early presidential election,’ men aged 18-29 were slightly more likely to say ‘two years later presidential election if impeachment dismissed’ than ‘early presidential election,’ and there was a difference in response from women of the same age group.
By party supporters, 96.3% of Democratic Party supporters expected an ‘early presidential election,’ while 79.7% of People Power Party supporters supported ‘two years later presidential election,’ clearly revealing the difference between party supporters. In addition, 6 out of 10 non-partisan supporters expected an ‘early presidential election.’
By ideological tendency, the progressives (91.1%) and moderates (74.6%) overwhelmingly responded ‘early presidential election,’ while the conservatives (67.3%) were more likely to support ‘two years later presidential election if impeachment dismissed.’
The government should be extended 36.0% vs. the government should be replaced 62.2%
Among the following opinions on the next presidential election, 36.0% of respondents in a telephone interview answered that the government should be extended, while 62.2% answered that the government should be replaced, showing that 6 out of 10 respondents hope for a change in government, and the gap between the two sides was 26.2%p.
By region, the response that the government should be replaced was dominant in all regions except Daegu and Gyeongbuk. In particular, the Honam region recorded the highest response rate, with 89.8% agreeing with the ‘government change.’ In addition, the demand for a change in government was high in the metropolitan area and Chungcheong region. On the other hand, in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, ‘extension of government’ (58.8%) was more dominant than ‘replacement of government’ (40.0%), showing a difference from other regions.
By age group, the opinion that ‘replacement of government’ was dominant in those in their 50s and younger. In particular, strong demands for change were shown in the 40s (83.2%) and 50s (74.8%). On the other hand, the two responses were evenly matched in the 60s, and the opinion of ‘extending the regime’ was dominant in those over 70. Regardless of gender, both men and women were more in favor of ‘changing the regime’, but there were differences by age group. In the case of men aged 18 to 29, the opinion of ‘extending the regime’ (52.4%) was somewhat higher, while women of the same age group were more in favor of ‘changing the regime’ (77.7%).
By party supporters, 97.6% of Democratic Party supporters advocated for ‘changing the regime’, while 90.8% of People Power Party supporters supported ‘extending the regime’, showing a clear difference in position between the two sides. In addition, 67.4% of the non-partisan group was surveyed as hoping for ‘changing the regime’.
There were also clear differences in opinion by ideological inclination. The progressives (94.7%) and the moderates (72.7%) overwhelmingly supported ‘regime change’, while the conservatives (76.8%) supported ‘regime extension’ more. In addition, differences were also observed in the analysis of supporters of the next presidential candidates. 97.7% of ‘Kim Moon-soo’ supporters supported ‘regime extension’, showing the trend of far-right conservatives being united. Following this, ‘Hong Joon-pyo’ supporters (83.7%) and ‘Oh Se-hoon’ supporters (81.7%) also had high responses of ‘regime extension’.
Lee Jae-myung overwhelmingly ranked first with 43.3% in suitability for the next presidential candidate. 31.3%p gap with ‘Kim Moon-soo’ who recorded 12.0%
In a telephone interview survey asking about the most suitable presidential candidate for the next presidential election, ‘Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea’ maintained first place with 43.3% support. Second place went to ‘former Minister of Labor Kim Moon-soo’ with 12.0%, and the gap between the two candidates was 31.3%p. Third place went to ‘Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon’ (6.7%), fourth place to ‘Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo’ (6.3%), and fifth place to ‘former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon’ (3.3%). Next, ‘Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon’ was surveyed with 2.2%, ‘People Power Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo’ with 1.9%, and ‘Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok’ and ‘National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik’ each with 0.7%.
By region, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ took the lead in all regions, and was far ahead of ‘Kim Moon-soo’ in the metropolitan area, Chungcheong region, Honam region, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeonggi, and Gangwon and Jeju. ‘Lee Jae-myung’ also showed an advantage within the margin of error in Daegu and Gyeongbuk.
By age group, ‘No suitable person’ (34.9%) was the highest for those aged 18-29, followed by ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (23.6%) and ‘Hong Jun-pyo’ (11.0%). For those aged 30 or older and under 60, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ overwhelmingly outpaced ‘Kim Moon-soo’, and for those aged 70 or older, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (24.5%) and ‘Kim Moon-soo’ (24.3%) were neck and neck, as in the previous survey.
By party supporters, 82.8% of Democratic Party supporters chose ‘Lee Jae-myung’, while 32.7% of People Power Party supporters supported ‘Kim Moon-soo’ as the next presidential candidate.
By ideological tendency, 77.0% of progressives overwhelmingly supported ‘Lee Jae-myung’, while conservatives (31.2%) chose ‘Kim Moon-soo’ as the top choice. In the middle class, ‘Lee Jae-myung’ (49.2%) maintained high support, ahead of ‘Oh Se-hoon’ (6.9%) by 42.3%p and ‘Kim Moon-soo’ (5.8%) by 43.4%p.
The combined approval rating of the Democratic Party’s presidential candidates ‘Lee Jae-myung’, ‘Kim Dong-yeon’, and ‘Woo Won-sik’ was 46.2%, which was 15.3%p higher than the combined approval rating of the People Power Party’s ‘Kim Moon-soo’, ‘Oh Se-hoon’, ‘Hong Joon-pyo’, ‘Han Dong-hoon’, ‘Ahn Cheol-soo’, and ‘Lee Jun-seok’ (30.9%).
This opinion poll was conducted in the form of a telephone interview. The survey was conducted from February 19 to February 20, 2025 (2 days), provided by the three telecommunication companies (29,997 in total / SKT: 15,000, KT: 9,000, LGU+: 5,997), with a confidence level of 95% and a sampling error of ±3.1% points. The response rate was 13.3% [7,570 calls attempted]. For more information, please refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee. hpf21@naver.com
