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브레이크뉴스 문홍철 기자= 현재 대기업 10곳 중 3곳(31.0%)은 작년에 비해 자금사정이 악화됐으나, 올해 자금수요는 늘어날 것(36.0%)으로 조사돼 올 한해 기업들의 자금운용이 한층 더 어려워질 것으로 예상됐다.
6일 한국경제인협회에 따르면 시장조사 전문기관인 모노리서치에 의뢰해 매출액 1000대 기업(공·금융기업 제외, 100개사 응답)을 대상으로 자금사정을 조사한 결과, 전년 대비 올해 자금사정이 악화됐다고 응답한 기업 비중(31.0%)이 호전됐다는 응답(11.0%)의 3배에 달했다.
업종별로 자금사정이 ‘악화’ 됐다고 응답한 기업 비중은 △건설·토목(50.0%) △금속(철강 등 45.5%) △석유화학·제품(33.3%) 순으로 높았다.
한경협은 이들 업종이 경기침체에 따른 수요 둔화와 글로벌 공급과잉 영향으로 장기 부진을 겪고 있어 자금 조달에 상당한 어려움을 겪고 있는 것으로 풀이했다.
기업들은 자금사정에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 요인으로 고환율과 물가 부담을 지적했다. 구체적으로는 △환율 상승(24.3%) △원자재 가격 및 인건비 상승(23.0%) △높은 차입 금리(17.7%) 등이었다.
자금사정은 어려운 상황인 반면, 올해 기업들의 자금수요는 연말까지 늘어날 것으로 전망됐다. 작년과 비교해 자금수요가 늘어날 것이라는 전망(36.0%)은 감소(11.0%)에 비해 3배 이상 많은 것으로 조사됐다. 기업의 과반(53.0%)은 올해도 작년과 유사한 수준에서 지출이 이뤄질 것이라고 전망했다.
자금수요가 주로 발생할 것이라고 예상되는 부문은 △원자재·부품 매입(39.7%) △설비투자(21.3%) △차입금 상환(14.3%) △인건비·관리비(14.0%) 순이었다.
아울러 지난 달 25일 한국은행이 기준금리를 3.0%에서 2.75%로 0.25%p 인하했지만 여전히 기업 5곳 중 1곳(20.0%)은 영업이익으로 이자비용을 감당하기 어려운 것으로 나타났다.
구체적으로 회사가 감당할 수 있는 기준금리 임계치가 현재 기준금리(2.75%) 보다 낮다고 응답한 기업 비중은 기준금리 △2.5%(14.0%) △2.25%(4.0%) △2.00%(2.0%) 등이었다.
기업들 사이에서는 올해 연말까지 추가적인 기준금리 인하는 없을 것이라는 전망이 우세했다. 기업 10곳 중 6곳(58.0%)은 연말 기준금리가 현 수준(2.75%)에서 머물거나(36.0%), 오히려 1차례 이상 인상(22.0%)될 것으로 전망했다.
또한, 기업들은 올해 원/달러 환율 최고점이 1500원에 근접(1495.8월)할 것이라고 내다봤다. 구체적으로 △1475원~1500원(28%) △1500원~1525원(24%) △1450원~1475원(23.0%) 등이었다.
안정적인 자금 관리를 위해 정책당국에 바라는 과제로는 △대내외 불확실성 해소 노력(34.3%) △환율 등 외환시장 변동성 최소화(25.7%) △정책금융 지원 확대(15.3%) △원자재·소재·부품 수급 안정화(12.3%) 순이었다.
break9874@naver.com
*아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.>
31% of large companies, worsening financial situation.. Pressure from rising exchange rates, raw materials, and labor costs
Currently, 3 out of 10 large corporations (31.0%) have worsened their financial situation compared to last year, but this year’s demand for funds is expected to increase (36.0%), so it is expected that companies’ financial management will become even more difficult this year.
According to the Korea Economic Association on the 6th, the results of a survey on the financial situation of the top 1,000 companies (excluding public and financial companies, 100 companies responded) commissioned by Monoresearch, a market research firm, showed that the proportion of companies that responded that their financial situation worsened this year compared to the previous year (31.0%) was three times higher than the proportion of companies that responded that their financial situation improved (11.0%).
The proportion of companies that responded that their financial situation ‘worsened’ by industry was highest in the following order: △Construction/Civil Engineering (50.0%) △Metal (steel, etc. 45.5%) △Petrochemicals/Products (33.3%).
The Korea Economic Research Institute interpreted that these industries are experiencing significant difficulties in raising funds due to long-term slump caused by slowing demand due to the economic downturn and the effects of global oversupply.
Companies pointed out high exchange rates and inflation as factors that negatively affect their financial situation. Specifically, they included: △ exchange rate increase (24.3%), △ increase in raw material prices and labor costs (23.0%), and △ high borrowing rates (17.7%).
While their financial situation is difficult, companies’ demand for funds is expected to increase until the end of this year. The number of companies that expect their demand for funds to increase compared to last year (36.0%) was more than three times higher than the number that expected a decrease (11.0%). More than half of companies (53.0%) expected that spending would be similar to last year.
The sectors where the demand for funds is expected to occur are: △purchase of raw materials and parts (39.7%), △investment in facilities (21.3%), △repayment of debt (14.3%), and △labor and management expenses (14.0%).
In addition, although the Bank of Korea lowered the base interest rate by 0.25%p from 3.0% to 2.75% on the 25th of last month, it was found that 1 out of 5 companies (20.0%) still have difficulty covering interest expenses with operating profits.
Specifically, the percentage of companies that responded that the threshold for the base interest rate that the company can afford is lower than the current base interest rate (2.75%) was △2.5% (14.0%), △2.25% (4.0%), and △2.00% (2.0%).
The prevailing view among companies was that there would be no additional base interest rate cuts by the end of this year. Six out of ten companies (58.0%) predicted that the base interest rate at the end of the year will remain at the current level (2.75%) (36.0%) or be raised at least once (22.0%).
In addition, companies predicted that the highest point of the won/dollar exchange rate this year will be close to 1,500 won (August 14,95). Specifically, the ranges were △1,475 won to 1,500 won (28%), △1,500 won to 1,525 won (24%), and △1,450 won to 1,475 won (23.0%).
The tasks desired from policy authorities for stable financial management were △efforts to resolve domestic and international uncertainties (34.3%), △minimizing volatility in the foreign exchange market such as the exchange rate (25.7%), △expanding policy financing support (15.3%), and △stabilizing the supply and demand of raw materials, materials, and parts (12.3%).
